Kingmakers in 2024: Can ‘Others’ damage Congress prospects in Haryana?

With Haryana Assembly elections less than two weeks away, both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress have released their manifestos and launched star campaigners to the ground. The Congress, upbeat after its 2024 general elections performance, is raring to make a comeback after being out of power for 10 years. The Bharatiya Janata Party, on the other hand, battling 10 years of anti-incumbency and farmers/wrestlers/Agniveer protests, hopes factionalism and ‘Others’ will spoil the grand old party’s chances.
In 2009 and 2019, Haryana’s voters gave marginally fractured mandates, with the Congress and the BJP winning 40 seats each respectively, the halfway mark being 46. While the Congress formed the government with the help of Independents and smaller parties in 2009, the BJP allied with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party in 2019.
Aside from the Congress and the BJP, the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, the Jannayak Janta Party-Azad Samaj Party alliance, and the Aam Aadmi Party have all fielded candidates on most of the 90 seats. Other smaller parties like Gopal Kanda’s Haryana Lokhit Party are also in fray with influence on some seats. The smaller parties and Independents may emerge as kingmakers in case of a hung assembly.
In the 2009 polls, 1,222 candidates contested. That is 13.6 candidates per seat. In 2014, this increased to 1,351 candidates, or 15 per seat. In 2019, this moderated to 1,169 candidates, or 13 per seat. In 2024, as per the Election Commission of India, 1,051 candidates are contesting, or 11.7 candidates per seat. Around seven Independents and candidates from smaller parties on average are contesting from each seat.

Around 200 candidates in each election were able to save their deposits, effectively meaning 2.3 to 2.5 candidates were in contention in each seat to win, making the contest more than two cornered. The ECI forfeits deposits of candidates who fail to secure at least one-sixth of the total votes polled in a constituency.
In 2009 and 2014, in 61 seats, the second runner-up scored more than the margin of victory. This declined to 53 seats in 2019, but it was still 60 per cent of the Assembly. High number of candidates, close contests, and the party ranked third playing a decisive role have all led to marginally hung Assemblies in two of the last three elections.
There were four seats each in 2009 and 2014 with only one significant candidate. Fifty-one seats in 2009, 37 in 2014, and 62 in 2014 had two significant candidates competing. There were 35 triangular or multi-cornered contests in 2009, which increased to 49 in 2014, before declining to 28 in 2019, representing one-third of the Assembly strength.
A significant candidate is one who has polled at least one-sixth of the total votes polled in their constituency. If there is only one significant candidate in a seat, it means no other candidate could save their deposit, effectively meaning an uncontested seat. If in a particular seat there are two significant candidates, then it points towards a bipolar contest. If there are three or more significant candidates, then it points towards a triangular or multi-cornered contest.
In 2009, the main contest was between the Congress and the INLD in 48 seats, more than half the Assembly strength. In 2014, it was a BJP versus INLD contest in 37 seats, a Congress versus BJP contest in 18 seats, and a Congress vs INLD contest in 12 seats. With the Chautala family’s hold weakening (patriarch Om Prakash Chautala in jail) and a split in the party, bipolarity increased in 2019 with Congress versus BJP contests in 51 seats. The BJP and the JJP were main contenders in 16 other seats.
Additionally, the Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) merged with Congress in 2016, increasing the bipolarity. In 2009, it had won six seats, while in 2014, it won two seats, bagging four to seven per cent of the vote share. In 2022, Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of HJC founder Bhajan Lal, joined the BJP.
Multi-cornered contests in a third of the seats and competitive politics have resulted in close contests across Haryana. In 2009, the victory margin was less than or equal to 10 per cent in 55 seats. This declined marginally to 47 in 2019, which was still more than half the Assembly strength. A swing of just five per cent is required to change the fortunes in these seats.

The average victory margins increased from 10.8 per cent in 2009 to 12.4 per cent in 2014 as the BJP won a simple majority. In terms of votes, the margins in 2009 (10,752) increased to 17,201 levels in 2014. The margins fell in 2019 to 11.5 per cent in a hung Assembly and in terms of votes to 15,946. In 25 seats, the victory margin was less than 5,000 votes. The general elections saw very close contests in six of the 10 Lok Sabha seats with margins ranging from two to six per cent.
“Others”, which includes smaller parties and Independents, have played a crucial role in Haryana’s elections. They won 15 seats with 30 per cent vote share in 2009. While the number of seats declined to eight (18 per cent votes) in 2019, it was still sizable.
“Others” had influence in 83 seats in 2009, which declined to 44 seats in 2019, still 50 per cent of the Assembly’s strength. Influence is defined as the number of seats where a party finished as winner, runner-up, and second runner-up.

Apart from “Others”, INLD-BSP alliance hopes to recover some of the lost ground channeling portion of Jat anger in its favour. It hopes to pocket a section of Dalit community votes due to alliance with BSP and benefit from a weakened JJP with some of its MLAs joining the BJP.
JJP is seen struggling to maintain its 2019 debut of 10 seats / 15% vote share as its anchor voting segment of Jats are unhappy with the party due to its post poll alliance with the BJP in 2019. It has roped in Chandrasekhar Azad’s ASP to woo young Dalit voters to neutralise losses on the Jat front.
AAP, too, post release of Kejriwal, is hoping to make a mark in state politics. It has fielded a few rebels and hopes to open its account in the assembly wooing voters on its Delhi model of governance. All of these could split the opposition / anti-BJP vote.
Both major parties face significant dissent, and rebel candidates contesting as Independents are posing challenges. The presence of these rebels is expected to disrupt the political calculus in around 20 seats, as per news reports.

To sum up, the BJP hopes “Others” plus INLD-BSP/JJP-ASP alliances would split the Opposition vote, reduce bipolarity, and damage the Congress party’s prospects across the state. On the other hand, the Congress believes the battle this time is direct with the saffron party, and “Others” may not be able to dent its chances. While, “Others” hope for a hung Assembly like 2009 and 2019.